Thursday, August 28, 2014

State Dept confirms Russian counter offensive underway.



This seals the deal.

I've been wondering who is right or wrong when it comes to news from Russia and Kiev when it relates to fighting in Ukraine and now you have it straight from the US State Dept's spokeswoman's mouth.

Russia is counterattacking and Kiev is about to get kidney punched.

Many readers have pointed to this having to be done by winter and it looks like they were right.  Kiev's attack stalled, the Russians are counterattacking and they're probably looking to consolidate their "new territory" before the first snow fall.

This is classic military art.  Allow your enemies to advance until they're over extended and then punch them in the throat.

Wonder where SecState Kerry is on this world shaking development?  The Russian Bear is ascendant!

63 comments :

  1. Actually, another point of view is that the assault on DNR/LNR was actually progressing too well. putka tried everything else - arms, heavy armor, artillery shelling, diplomatic pressure, contractors - and was still being pushed out of Ukraine. So now he ended up being out of options - and had to resort to open aggression to help his minions.
    I don't really see how this will end well though - Chechnya was a country of 1.3 million, with no natural resources whatsoever, or economic potential, for that matter - and Ukraine is 40mil country. Occupation might be easy, but holding the territory? I don't know.
    Again, just to remind you - a few weeks ago, I said Kiev was able to handle the situation *UNLESS* putin goes all in. And apparently, he just did.

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    1. I don't think he wants to control Ukraine, just the parts that separated. And to me... this is far from the end in a few months, Ukraine government will try everything to get these territories back.

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    2. Haven't you noticed that every time shit hits the fan for Kiev ,Russian invasion is underway ,yust somehow there are no photos ,vids ,satelite picts of the whole show?

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    3. This time, there are photos, there are POW's and there is new "front" that is long way from territory under terrorist control. So what Mr.T... they were teleported there by Scotty? Or enter FROM territory of Russian Federation with heavy equipment.

      Or you will also response in according of good old KGB rule... If they grab you by your hand, say it's not your hand.

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    4. That front has been happening for at least 3 days as the DNR forces progressed down to the sea ,probem is you have been shown the same map of action for a week or so, western media still continue to show same 'map' for past couple of weeks .http://u-96.livejournal.com/3710319.html ,http://militarymaps.info/

      As for going trough russian territory Ukrainian army does it all the time so far as we know there are 500+ ukrainians in russia and what 10 russians in ukraine yo do realise there is no fence or a ditch or even markings on the most of the border between states ,http://u-96.livejournal.com/3710319.html

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    5. There WERE Ukrainians that move to Russia without weapons and were released to Ukraine after that. And there is a difference from entering full armed column of regular Russian army to Ukraine. And you think those dude are really just lost the road...

      Mr.T someone piss on your face and you scream enthusiastic that the golden rain is failing on you.

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    6. I gotta partially agree with Shas. There are POWs (tho, at the same time this happened 60 ukranian soldiers moved to Russia, so you could call this a double standard).

      Can you point the armored column pictures and stuff? I could only find info on the soldiers, so that might be a spin.

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    7. Shas, I ask you this:

      What would Russian gain by threatening Europe?
      Why did NATO keep pushing east-ward?
      Can Russia really afford all-out war vs the West?

      This all boils down to being and acting in the wrong neighbourhood.

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    8. - What would Russian gain by threatening Europe?

      The self delusion status of super power once again. Putin said couple of times that he see NATO as the enemy. And the rotten west is only "evil" thing.

      - Why did NATO keep pushing east ward?
      Why not? If some country want to be part of NATO and feel secure in defense pact why to say no to them. The Turkey are part of it, Baltic states are part of it, Poland are part of it. Most of that nations have common border with Russia. And they did not join it because it was "cool" but because they know of what "neighbor" they have.

      - Can Russia really afford all-out war vs the "West".
      No it can't, it would be annihilated. The only As they have in sleeve are nukes, because in terms of conventional forces they would be reaped with warp speed. But they don't need to... Ukraine is not recognize by Putin as country but only as former territory of Russia. They are not part of EU or NATO, they are the only country that can be pretty easily attacked and annexed without reaction of "west". They are in deep shit... the most deepest shit in whole Europe.

      But if you don't stop bear now, he will be confident that you will not stop him next time. Bear respect force... you show weakness, bear will not respect you, it will eat you.

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    9. - The self delusion status of super power once again. Putin said couple of times that he see NATO as the enemy. And the rotten west is only "evil" thing.

      Which would go to shit as soon as economic relations with Europe went sour. Why Russia is not threatening Finland, for instance? Because they did not behave in a hostile manner vs Russia.



      - Why not?
      To avoid provoking a situation like this. Europe would not allow Russian missiles in Ukraine aimed at them, why should the opposite be allowed? Ukraine is a matter of national security for the russians. If you simply keep pushing a military alliance like that you risk escalating into war. And that's exactly what happened.

      In fact, the recent push by NATO secretary to place more troops east will probably only see as justification for Russia to behave even more aggressively. And if this report is true, then this completely predictable scenario was pushed intentionally.

      - They are not part of EU or NATO
      Exactly. So why should either get involved? This is not a recent development. Putin warned Bush Ukraine would cease to exist before it turned into a NATO member in 2007. They are not bluffing, and we should really be sensitive about their demands.

      Putin quickly dismissed intentions of reopening the intelligence base in Cuba because he's well-aware of the implications this would cause. It's only logical to follow the same steps.

      Also, I really don't think Russia would be alone if it went to direct war with the West. WE SHOULD NOT BE PUSHING THIS SCENARIO.

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    10. The situation of Finland and Sweden can change in near future as they start to check the ground for some type of cooperation with NATO, not being full member but something between.

      Missiles in Ukraine, there are not even missiles in Poland... we are part of NATO, Baltic states are part of NATO. Do we have NATO bases? No, not a single one. We have a training center in Szczecin, that's border of Germany. NATO use air base in Baltic's to operate air guard operation. And that's all... where is those missiles that would be targeted in to Russia?

      For now the only missiles are Russian tactical nukes in Königsberg that are targeting Poland. And when the Polish or NATO officials asking about them they are receive a polite words that you can translate to "fuck off".

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    11. wait a minute! i keep hearing that a US base in Poland is already in the works and that our two countries are working ontthe basing agreement! is that not true?

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    12. No, some small groups of men with training missions. From time to time in larger maneuvers some detachment. The building of shore Aegis base in not even started and there is some doubt's that will start at all. After annexation of Crimea additional rotary mission of air force and some paratroopers. Nothing for longer time or in specific NATO localisation.

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    13. Shas:

      - The situation of Finland and Sweden can change in near future as they start to check the ground for some type of cooperation with NATO

      Is it wise to do so? I have no doubts Europe and the US would aid those two countries if Russia really attacked them.

      - Missiles in Ukraine, there are not even missiles in Poland...
      - And when the Polish or NATO officials asking about them they are receive a polite words that you can translate to "fuck off".

      Do we want to risk escalating this? Remember it was Bush who scrapped one of the agreements the US had about nuclear weapons and which was considered vital by the Russians for their security concerns, using the possible threat of a ME nuke coming for the US and the EU (like, really?). Relations were improving pior to that.


      Sol:

      The agreement was put on hold to avoid provoking Russia afaik. Same for anti-missile defense systems.

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    14. You have no doubts? Why... because they are in NATO... no they are not... because they are in EU... also they are not. They are in the same political situation as Ukraine. I bet Ukrainians after Budapest also had no doubts that they are safe from foreign aggression... so powerful players guarantee that right?... right?

      Escalating things... who is escalating? Te EU don't have nukes near border of Russia, hell the closest ones are in France. And in opposite... the full pack of tactical nukes in Königsberg ready to erase Poland from the map. What about our security concerns? Russia don't give a shit about us... why NATO should give a shit about them?

      Not provoking, not provoking... look what give us this appeasement politics? Again war in Europe.

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    15. Ukraine is in Russia's sphere of influence and that is a historical fact. It is one of its core interests. No major power would accept a military threat so close to its borders, so therefore it is understandable how Putin reacted when Ukraine tried turning West. This was an expected outcome. Had the West not intervened with in Ukraine, we would have preserved the status quo at least.

      Furthermore, there is no point admitting more members into NATO unless we are prepared to defend them. Who do you think Ukraine matters to more? Russia or the Germans/French? Who's willing to die for it? Unless you are prepared to fight for it and pay in lives, don't bother because backing down in a stand-off with Russia makes us look bad. Russia clearly has the resolve to make the hard choices here.

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    16. And I was thinking that we are behind hard spheres of influence politics. Ukraine want to be part of EU and in form of punishment Russia give them bloodbath... that's the Soviet Union style, and I hate to be right when I say many years ago that they only change name for new fancy one but the mentality stay the same.

      Ukraine would be not a part of NATO, not a full member. And yeas, if country can't defend himself nobody will fight for it. This is the true that NATO command saw for many years and that it forced on new members. Massive modernization and optimization of armed forces are key on NATO membership. But also Pact is forming a wider defense operations like Baltic Air to support less capable members against hostile moves of it's neighbor.

      Who will die for... no one what to die for. Ukraine had an Budapest Memorandum that major players guarantee it safety, what happen with that guarantees I don't need to say. On of those players attack it and rest only watch. Political deals are good on paper, in reality they have the worth of toilet paper. We Poles in some hard way understand important lesson, you want to count on someone, count on yourself. Because nobody will help you.

      People here don't believe in NATO, don't believe in EU and the action of Russia just put more wood in the fire of doubts. What if Russia move on Baltic States because they will say that whole former Warsaw Pact and Soviet Union are part of there Great Russia nationalistic Empire?

      The most important question is... do the NATO members will send forces to die for Tallinn, Riga, Vilnius? The people have serious doubts now that everything what "west" will do is... be concern.

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  2. Lovely.

    There go the DNC's hopes for the White House in 2016, presuming we're still around to care.

    Just out of curiousity, I wonder how long it takes to teach a guy to fly an A-10 proficiently?
    And how many of the surplus soon-to-be retired ones destined for the Davis-Montham boneyard could be air ferried to Kiev on a rush basis as loaners in that time, along with spare parts and a decent complement of underwing stores?

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    1. They are actually scrapping some A-10s not just a park-n-store.

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  3. Only news for people who believed Kiev was on brink of victory and actually wining ,wake up you are being lied to 24/7 ,how many times now did Russia already invade? ,where is that partialy destroyed Ruski column Ukies supposedly destroyed a week ago ?. Everytime things go south for Kiev Russian invasion is happening somehow evwry time they forget about photographing ,recording ,gps coordinates must be due to all the runnin away they are doing.

    ''The Panic in Mariupol: As I wrote before, the threat on the outskirts of the city was multiplied by the confusion in the area, so when one of the Junta armored columns retreating from Novoazovsk was mistaken for Militia, this led to the hysteria of "DPR tanks are just about to roll into Mariupol!” Hence the traffic jams of civilians and Junta soldiers at the highway to Berdaynsk; people thought Mariupol would be taken today and in a panic rushed out of the city. Interestingly, when it came to running, the national guard units easily outpaced the civilians, leaving just one punitive battalion and the remnants of police forces to defend Mariupol. This story is very significant in the sense that it clearly shows how panic sweeps the entire management system - from the lowest neo-Nazi of the "Azov" battalion to the Gauleiter (chief overseer – Ger.) of Mariupol. In reality, advance Militia groups are fighting on the outskirts of Mariupol, and Junta is reporting that they are about to create a reliable line of defense and stop Militia forces from entering Mariupol (Novoazovsk is already written off, apparently)''

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    1. There are those video interviews of 9 russian paratroopers who got taken prisoners from yesterday, who happen to be regular army. Does that qualify as russian invasion?

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    2. Oh they just just get lost right? This is the new meaning of invasion? Our military units just get lost on the other country territory and they will stay there just to be sure. Also the number of dead and wounded Russian military personnel that is reported by RUSSIAN sources is probably also lie of Ukrainians.

      Mr.T you start to neglect obvious things. You start to speak like true Putinists.

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    3. I don't know you tell me? does 500 armed ukrainian soldiers coming into Russia count as invasion.

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    4. How about we differentiate between troops pressed against the border and being fired upon from both sides, that go over the border carrying a white flag and no weapons, with fully equipped and armed russian soldiers operating 30km inside Ukrainian territory?

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    5. You can scream, you can cry you can stamp your foot in the floor... you can try to entreat reality with all your will Mr.T But the fact is simple... Russia attack Ukraine and we have WAR there.

      Sol' tell me couple times that there is a WAR there, I always negate that. Now I have the balls to say that I was wrong and Sol' was right. War is on the other side on my country border, people die there because some lunatic want to rise new CCCP.

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    6. They wouldn't have been fired upon if they weren't themselves firing into Russian territory. And it took a while before Russia justifiably responded. And if Russia took America as example It would have bombed the shit out of Kiev just for that.

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    7. This wouldn't have happened, if Ukraine still had it's nuclear arsenal away, as per Budapest memorandum (look it up). Now, accusing Ukraine of shelling russia, is just... so fucking twisted, I will just leave it hang in the air.
      Again, Ukraine is 40mil country, and remember how many problems putler had with Chechnya - tiny 1.3mil nation. Blood will be spilled, and lots of it.

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    8. Problem is east Ukraine population like those on Crimea might not be fans of Kiev as much they are of Moscow

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    9. They are half of Ukrainians there, the "rebelion" is spread only in two small regions it never even cross the border of both oblast's. What East Ukraine? East Ukraine is calm, the fighting are only in two small zones in the... let's call it east of east of Ukraine.

      The Crimea was highly ethnic Russian, small number of Ukrainians and larger group of Tatars. That's why on the east of east... the main fighting force are NOT locals, the command of "rebels" are mainly NOT locals, the politics leadership of rebellion are mainly NOT locals. Why? because there were not enough radicals bandits there to lead and fight in that rebellion and the Ukrainian forces would longtime ago restore order.

      Ammo, weapons, supplies, men... all of this came from Russia. Many of them on "shore leave" already came back to Russia... in coffins. And there will be a lot more of them on both side.

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    10. Oh, how quickly you forget. The East Ukraine is calm because Kiev friendship crews arrived just in the nick of time to subdue those regions the small.flare up that were starting. Now finally there are cracks showing with less and less Kievs Thugs being around (being sent to the front lines.) even in western part of Ukraine their are small protest against the current Junta against them drafting their sons and or husbands and basically abandoning them in a shit position not to mention the ever growing economical collapse that Ukraine is heading for and fuckload of other reasons. Though they all get quickly subdued by the friendship crews.

      Just from quick Google search.

      http://www.businessinsider.com/clashes-in-kiev-as-ukraine-moves-to-dismantle-euromaidan-protest-camp-2014-8

      There is shit load of more info you can easily find yourself.

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    11. This is the purest grade bullshit. Maidan, as such, was dismantled in August after the amount of beggars, local drunks and thieves made it no longer safe for people to walk around there, with the ample public support.
      Problems in Donbas started when imported thugs started taking over governmental buildings, and it only got worse. Now, for example, Slovyansk - which used to be the fortress of pro-russian insurgents - is fully Ukrainian - flags, meetings, speech, etc. And no, there were no three year olds crucified.

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  4. Nine guys, and paratroopers, is an invasion, or 6 Tanks ?
    So Ukraine has invaded Russia with the troops that crossed the border to seek refuge, hundreds of them. The border between the two is huge and extremely difficult to control...Sorry but this is the 3rd of the 4th ''russian invasion''...crying wolf every time lead to this. There is so much bullshit on both sides, it's difficult to believe anything.

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    1. And how many regular army soldiers with heavy equipment need to cross your border to give you idea that you are under attack? If I remember good old military drills ONE foreign solider under arms is enough.

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    2. You mean like the the heavy armed Ukrainian troops that already crossed the Russian border and even left their BMP's lying around after they got them stock there ?Or the other various times?

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  5. http://socioecohistory.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/ukrainian_humor-visit_russia_before_russia_visits_you.jpg?w=500&h=710

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  6. This isn't Russia on the rise just Russia securing her borders; the sort of war / punitive action that used to happen all the time prior to 1914. It is neither right or wrong. For the US and EU to portray this move by Russia as something akin to 3rd Shock Army stoving across the inner German border is wrong. It is inflammatory. And it is very dangerous. The Obama White House should be looking at securing the US at home. How US Army could be employed in its traditional role that of protecting the US's borders and not playing at world policeman or trying to usurp the USMC in the expeditionary role. They have had a decade's experience of policing a desert time to take it home to start securing the northern bank of the Rio Grande. That's the US primary threat not playing geo-political games in the middle of the world island. Time to bring the legions home and put the American people first.

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    1. Good one... bring your boys home. And let the Russia terrorize rest of the world... the same words as you speak were on the front lines of WWII, that time from the loudspeakers of Radio Tokyo and Radio Berlin.

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    2. Shas, how many wars is Russia currently involved in compared to the US? How large is the US's military spending compared to Russia? Who's terrorizing who on Russia's front door here?

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    3. Oh, now it's Russia that is oppressed... so it's all as always US fault. That Russia invade Ukraine and kill it's citizens is also US fault. This is what, some kind of pity revenge that Ukraine did not want to be part of new CCCP? And Ukraine would like to be part of US? or the EU? This is some sick soviet mentality that everything is always fault of US... even if it's raining in Moscow it's fault of US. Like there is not more nations on the world just CCCP and US...

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  7. I think US State Department does not fully appreciates the gravity of the current situation. This is how a border of a new state being drawn, and there is nothing NATO/US can do at this point.

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.il/2014/08/janes-defense-caught-with-pants-down.html

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  8. Well, seems the "realists" (which I consider myself to be part of) are going to prevail over the pro-kiev wishful thinkers (no offence boys, just stating the obvious: you're allowed to pick a side, but wishful thinking is always gonna bite you in the ass some day-.
    Just to emphasize my point, extract from a post from 3 days ago:
    "The rebels seem to have now started their own counter-offensive, which they had been announcing for 3 weeks. Guess the fact that improvement of the situation in Donetsk and Lugansk allows them to pull some forces from these areas and use them elsewhere. the objective is not so much to encircle Pro-Kiev forces but to take control of the border area with Russia, in order to facilitate movement of equipment and men over that border. If they reach that goal, their next move might be to go for Mariupol and Slaviansk.
    I predict a very hard to swallow reality check for all those who have been saying that the rebels are about to get crushed. In fact, there's gonna be a lot of disbelief and head shaking in a lot of places, given the fact that Kiev has sent most of its forces in the Donbass, leaving the 'hinterland' mostly troops empty ... The region of Kharkov, Zaporojie or Dniepropetrovsk is largely unguarded and this vacuum might prove a real strategic blunder for Kiev, if rebels are able to exploit it by infiltrating various sized armed groups into those areas, cutting of supply roads, attacking army convoys and bascially wrecking havoc behind ennemy lines. Wouldnt be surprised if they pulled that of, in one form or the other, as some recent news (not mentioned in Western media) have shown".
    Quod erat demonstrandum ... ;-)

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    1. The rebels were about to be crushed - which is why Russia invaded.

      We should start throwing advanced artillery systems, tanks, aircraft, SAMs, SRBMs, and other gear into the Ukrainian inventory. This is intolerable aggression. We don't have to send troops, but we should do everything in our power to bleed out Russia on this one.

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    2. I'm about tto piss off Shas but why should we send them anything?

      Why is this our business?

      What is our national security interest here?

      How much money should we invest in a faltering economy when our own economy is faltering?

      Big momma America's titties have been sucked dry. No more milk, money, hardware or other things can we afford to give away.

      PLUS I HAVEN'T HEARD EVEN ONCE WHY WE NEED TO GET INVOLVED IN THIS MESS!

      So again. Tell me why we should be involved in anyway? Personally I prefer not to take sides and simply observe.

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    3. You don't piss me off Sol' because you right. Americans don't need to do this, You have your own problems, on your own turf, with your own things. Europe don't send you weapons and help to fight with Mexican emigrants or drug cartels. It's your turf, your fight.

      This is OUR turf, this is OUR continent, this is OUR problem. We can't seat in our cosy cabinets and ignore this. We did that before and two crazy lunatics give us a bloodbath and burn most of Old Continent in fires of war for some delusional nationalistic dream of great empires. Again the west of Europe drown in fucking appeasement politics. This is the global problem but it need to be solved by Europe!

      But it's not... the "leaders" say that they are discontent. Russia piece by piece grab Ukraine, destroy and burn it. And the Europe is... discontent.

      Edmund Burke, philosopher and politic said one time very wise words: All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.

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    4. @ Patrick: sure thing, Russia invaded ... exactly how many times have we heard that story already from the spin doctors in Kiev ? Must be at least the 4th or 5th Russian invasion since Kiev opted for the military option ... How come the Russians aren't already parading on Maïdan square then ? This is all the same BS that the Ukies pull whenever they in trouble (which happens more and more) ... Crying for help from NATO and the US because they refused to talk in the first place and tried to crush the rebellion in the East. As for bleeding out Russia, good luck with that !
      So totally agree with Sol, why should the US, which has already enough on its plate, send in more help than they already have (and which is pretty consistent in terms of logistics and equipment) ? Now I'm not naïve, I'm totally aware that the Seppos get a lot of help from Russia, but to argue there's one Russian invasion after another, that is and always will be BS ... Lesson to learn: never start a fight you can't win ! Now stop drinking the coolaid and sit down at the negociation table, get this over with, before more people are killed needlessly !!!

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    5. sorry, posted it before seeing Shas' post. Appeasement politics ? You've got to be kidding ! What do you want ? Another continental war ? sure that would settle the issue ... Send you own kids to war in Ukraine if you like, or go and buy yourself an AK and join whichever side you've picked, but leave the rest of us out of it. There is no militarily solution to this, period !

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    6. because It's a chess game where US State departement / Neo-cons try to kill every pawn of russia and make and checkmate russia... But trying to checkmate russia is quite foolish..

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    7. We will have WAR Hecate don't be naive like Chamberlain... Nobody in Europe want war, WAR is not something you want or not... you can't say "oh no I don't want war" because WAR don't GIVE A FUCK WHAT YOU WANT.

      You think that Poland want war when it was attacked by Reich and Soviet Union in 39' ?
      You think that Finland want war when it was attacked by Soviet Union in 39' ?
      You think that France want war when it was attacked by Reich in 40' ?
      You think that US want war when it was attacked in 41' ?
      You think that Ukraine want war?!

      Nobody want fucking WAR, but war don't give a FUCK WHAT YOU WANT!

      You will not fight in Ukraine, you will not fight in Poland, you will not fight anywhere... to the moment someone would knock to the door and you will bow to your new masters because you don't have the balls or courage to say years before that enough is enough. And you will be branded coward for future generations.

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    8. @ Shas: hey Dude, keep you speech for you like minded-friends. As i said, i don't mind people taking sides but stop the talking then and go and join the war if you like. I hear they accept Polish volunteers in some pro-Kiev groups. I've been in 3 wars by the way, so we can compare our service records anyday of the f*king week my friend, just turn down the volume a little when you talk about cujones and courage !

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    9. Ukrainian people were duped big time before shit hit the fan they were presented with 2 options ,sign a EU treaty (which basically opens up Ukrainian market for EU products but gives nothing tangible in return ,as ukrain has no products it could sell in Europe)
      If Ukraine thinks it will ever join EU its mistaken ,EU has enough problems with the undeveloped former East block countries that joined already, problem childs being Romania and Bolgaria still both have GDP per capita at least 2x Ukraine )
      On the other hand there was Russian offer for hard cash ,cheap gas and unitary market (Ukraine,Belorussia,Kazakhstan ,Russia etc). Before anyone blows a lid you have to understand that Ukrainian firms can't compete on western markets with their products just natural resources and farm products but even those are curently not at health and safety standards that would allow sales in EU ,Ukraine would/will need long and painfull(huge jobless rates) reforms to become competitive .

      On the other hand markets like those in Euroasian markets are more or less on the same level so ukrainian products can compete with others ,modernisation would take much longer but would be way less painfoul. In any case option 1 resulted in civil war, loss of Crimea and economical shock therapy the worst is yet to come as Ukrainan firms lose bussiness in the east and gain no bussiness in the west.

      Coroupt bussines practices work ok in the future Euroasian trade zone no so much in the west
      http://ti-ukraine.org/sites/default/files/u/124/images/cpi2013_easterneuropeandcentralasia_en.jpg

      Oh yes and the funny part about those gas prices ,Ukraine used to get friendly prices in the past now why should Russia charge anything below prices that it gets in Europe. Its not like Ukraine is being charged anything more than anyone else.

      I do not know why US should get involved but its no something that started yesterday. I am afraid both US and Nato do not have a honourable way out without loosing face.President is loosing image and legarcy so more open than ever fo stupid ideas that could/would potentially help his image.

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    10. There are no pro-Kiev groups, Hecate... there are Ukrainian groups. You speak like Kiev was a country an nation, it's not. It's only a city, the capital of let me underline this UKRAINE. You can be nice and cosy in your country many miles away from conflict. But I'm seating near the fraking border, behind it is the country that is attacked by Russia the long and terrible enemy of my people from generations. So excuse me if I take a side and be a little piss off that in my neighborhood some blood handed bully just put an fire under house of my neighbor. And the police force and firefighters in my "town" don't give a shit about it.

      You don't have a fraking idea about the Bear. We know the Bear, we know how he act, how he speak, how he fight... we ware under occupation of Bear. We fight with him more time then you can count, we lost countless lives against it.

      And again excuse me that I'm piss off when I read how the world don't give a shit about Ukraine and that Russia should grab what it want. Because MY NATION was too many times in the same position... too many times the world don't give a shit about us, sell us, trade us, betray us... kill us.

      It's not our problem... let them die, who would care about some Poles... who would care about some Estonians... who would care about some Ukrainians. Who care...

      The good men don't give a shit and evil ones will do what they want. The reality will not walk away if you turn your head in other direction and pretend that's nothing is happen.

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    11. You see the repeat of WW2, we see the repeat of the WW1 : useless war wanted by politicians and industrials, not people.

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    12. And you think fabsther that WWII was not useless? The people don't want it, they never want any war. The leaders want wars, the men of money and product want war... every war always start for an limited reasons where some 99% are for land or natural/artificial treasure.

      I see repeat of 38' I see the ONZ on the same incompetent not artificial level as League of Nations. I see the new nationalistic ideology of great Russian superpower as new Third Reich. I see the same patters how Hitler play the Europe under own needs. And I'm fucking scare fabsther... the history like to repeat itself, this is the old truth.

      And the last time those patters show on the horizons... my nation lost 6 million peoples, 48% of territory. 2/5 of our cultural heritage. Even thinking about this, that this can repeat is unbearable.

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    13. Sol, just to answer your question "why":
      Budapest memorandum. USA, Great Britain and (sic) Russia agreed to guarantee Ukraine's territorial integrity and independence after they decided to give up their nuclear stockpile, which was somewhat a guarantee in itself:
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Ukraine
      After the dissolution of the USSR about one third of Soviet nuclear arsenal, as well as significant means of its design and production remained on the Ukrainian territory.[1]

      Second, after 9/11, Ukraine maintained the 4th biggest contingent of troops in Iraq (just a bit less than Australia did):
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-National_Force_%E2%80%93_Iraq
      >> Ukraine: 1,650 peak (deployed 8/03-withdrawn 12/08)

      So while it's not much - they were your ally, when you needed it. Time for payback? I don't know.

      One more thing I'd like to get straight - I don't think Ukraine needs boots on the ground. Intel, some equipment would be nice though (it's not like Russia ain't sponsoring their adversaries).

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    14. I think you need to study the histoy period between 1929 - 1945 : you wouldn't write these things...

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    15. I know history of central Europe good, very good fabsther. I'm an historian by education and history of central Europe is history of Poland. And my specialty was years from 1916 to 1945.

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    16. Ok : You at least accomplish something :amazing me !

      So you, for sure, know which country give to Nazi germany the tetraethyl ( for creating artificial petrol )it needed to sustain all the war ? Didn't make you think about ? You're country was expandable and still is, even all the OTAN.


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    17. Tetraethyl lead is an octane booster that was design and invented in General Motors. And it's not used for creation of synthetic oil that Germany start to work on and produce already after WWI.

      I know that my country is expandable, history give us that lesson many times. We have the "pleasure" being the shield and wall of Europe and many times we pay the highest price for that "privilege". Especially in XX century we take that lesson pretty hard.

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    18. Busted : you simply looked wikipedia, you never heard about before...

      Just for you
      http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/aureview/1981/jul-aug/becker.htm

      No tetraethil, no air force, no blitzkrieg...

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    19. And in what part I'm busted huh?

      That tetraethyl lead is octane booster? Or that synthetic oil was first produced (as your article also say) after WWI. And Tetraethyl lead not tetraethil...

      And dude, anyone know about Tetraethyl lead who have or had an old car. Or at least he should have. Statement that sintetic oil production that don't have anything to do with Tetraethyl lead was the main reason for existing of air force... is... funny.

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  9. I wonder what path will Russia take if this is true. Turn Ukraine into a scrapyard or only push them out of Donetsk and Luhansk?

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    1. I don't think Russia wants to control Ukraine, just some parts and that's it.

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  10. In the short-term and for obvious reasons, we should care because we are bound by the NATO treaty to our allies in eastern Europe. Every NATO nation in Eastern Europe has announced increases defense spending as a result of the Ukraine mess that Russia has brought about. Considering the our prompting and cajoling hasn't gotten our NATO allies to increase defense spending for a decade, the Russian threat has obviously prompted some real action on their part.
    Even Finland and Sweden are openly discussing joining NATO. Finland's new Prime Minister, Stubb, is an open advocate for joining NATO. Both neutrals have also announced the need to increase defense spending and point to the Ukraine as the reasoning.
    So, Russia clearly has spooked Europe into some sort of action. Why should we care? In the short-term, Russia isn't a threat to the US or NATO, but 15 years from now, that's likely a different story.
    Russia is historically paranoid about security (rightly so) and wants as much buffer zone between it and any potential aggressor. With the loss of Belarus and Ukraine as parts of the USSR, Russia lost great tracts of buffer between it and Europe.
    Putin has often said the greatest tragedy has been the loss of the USSR and its dissolution. I think it is is safe to assume like any good Russian, he wants to reacquire more buffer zones uner the umbrella of a Greater Russia. Belarus is already a satellite of Russia and serves a valuable role: Russian stooge. Russian wishes Ukraine to serve in a similar capacity.
    But Russia has a long-term of re-integrating Belarus and Ukraine into a larger Greater Russia, then our NATO allies Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, etc. will be on th border with the Russian bear.
    We want Europe to be strong and independent and it can't do that with a bear breathing down its neck. In spite of the collective economic and military strength of Europe, politically it is fractured and unable to lead itself out of a paper bag. It has too many Chiefs, not enough Indian braves. So, unless we want to see Europe kow-towing to the Russian Bear, we need to take an interest in the Ukraine now.
    We don't want to find ourselves in 15 years complaining about the blood, feathers, and lack of eggs because we let the Russian fox get too close to our henhouse.
    Does this mean we start shipping over M1 tanks and Javelins? No. those take training and a logistical train that are alien to the Ukraine and are not a qualitative improvement in their own arms.

    The things the Ukrainians need are the basics: uniforms, boots, tents, sleeping bags, helmet, webbing gear, military rations, water purification, medical supplies, radios, Night vision equipment, etc.
    NATO should be sending planeloads of such supplies to Ukraine every day.
    In the near term, our Eastern European NATO members should be looking at selling Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopter spares to the Ukraine like Croatia is.

    http://www.defensenews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2014308260021

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